Mafia 2016

(Missed that there's a 14th page.)

Seems like everyone's in favor of me claiming first, but there's a slight problem with that... You see I don't like rules, not even ones I've suggested myself. So I'm just going to have mod claim for me.

Also, I nominate 1337ness to claim next.

Iced_Tea is an Innocent Child, and is guaranteed to be aligned with the town.

That changes things.

I'm bulletproof.

Manlove claim next

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:

I'm bulletproof.

Bulletproof what? IIRC that's just a modifier, so I'd assume the full role would be "bulletproof townie" or something like that.

I have a few thoughts already, but I'll hold off until everyone has claimed so as to not accidentally make it easier for scum to lie.

Okay that's.. interesting.
Yeah, I guess he just means Bulletproof Town or something? I'unno. 1337ness, can we get clarification on that?
Actually, I bet he's ALIEN BULLETPROOF IN THE ALIEN TEAM...
...
I nominate Manlove next.

Then when he has claimed, we'll throw a vote between either Myself or Cracked to see who should go next.
Then when that's all said and done, we'll do TSR because you know, he's pretty much conf town at this point.

There's only a vote for the first person, after that the current claimant picks the next one.

Yeah I'm pretty sure he meant bulletproof town.

Aaah I see that.

Yeah that makes more sense now that I think about it.

Vote Count 3.1

Not Voting: 1337ness_of_teh_n00b, Cracked Atlas, Melexiious, Captain Manlove, Iced_tea, Tunnel Snakes Rule

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

Day 3 Deadline

I think from here on, no one should post unless they're claiming. I do have a reason for this, and I'll reveal it once we're done.

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:

That changes things.

I'm bulletproof.

Bullshit. I'm town 1-shot bulletproof.
I figured mentioning it would get someone to try and grab it.

So you claim 1-shot bulletproof then?

Also, who do you nominate to claim next?

(Me, 1337ness, and you already claimed. That leaves TSR, Melexx, and Atlas for you to pick.)

Oh whoops. I nominate Atlas to go next.

I am that most overpowered of roles, the Vanilla Townie.

I nominate Mexxy.

Oh shit I didn't realize people started posting.

I'm an ascetic voyeur.

I nominate TSR.

Melexiious wrote:

voyeur

So, who have your voyeuring targets been N1 and N2, and what were the results?

Town Doctor.

Is that everyone?

Yup. I'd still like to hear Melexx's targets and results though, and yours too TSR.

So far people have claimed:

Me: Innocent Child, confirmed by mod.
1337ness: Bulletproof
Manlove: 1-shot Bulletproof
Atlas: Vanilla Townie
Melexx: Ascetic Voyeur
TSR: Town Doctor

I actually already have an evaluation worked out based on our set of claims, including a conclusion. However I want to hear Melexx and TSR's targets/results first.

(I'll probably go to sleep now, or maybe I won't. Just... uh... don't lynch anyone until I'm back.)

Cracked Atlas Day 1, Captain Manlove day 2.

In hindsight I really should have protected Orandulum because he always dies on the first night. Silly me.

I checked on 1337ness the first night and no result.

I checked on Cracked the second night and no result.

Well, those responses actually kinda mess with my theory. The "conclusion" part of it at least, anyway.

I don't see why town would want to lie in this situation, that's very important to note - and most of my evaluation hinges on it. If I'm missing something obvious, please point it out to me. I can see why town would want to lie in an early massclaim, but this massclaim is going to decide over who wins or loses, so it would be in any town's best interest to be 100% honest. So, assuming all town are 100% honest and all scum are (obviously) lying, here's my thoughts:

Mod noted at the start that there's at least 1 vanilla townie, most likely only 1 as we have very few players. Atlas is the only one who claimed vanilla townie, meaning if he were scum the "real" vanilla townie would have also claimed the role, since nobody did and we are assuming no town are lying that means Atlas must indeed be town. Not to mention that vanilla townie would be a pretty shit lie to pick in this situation.

With me and Atlas out, that means two of the following 4 are scum:

1337ness
Manlove
Melexx
TSR

Those 50/50 odds are really nice. In fact one option would be to just take the odds and lynch at random, but let's logic a little further:

I agree with the argument that there are likely more than 1 protection roles with so few players, though I kinda doubt there are more than 2, at least not more than 2 strong ones (meaning I could see 1-shot bulletproof alongside two doctors, for example). For this reason, I think at least one of TSR and 1337ness are definitely scum. I was originally going to say that Manlove + 1337ness are our scum duo, but with TSR protecting Manlove on N2 it wouldn't make sense why noone died (unless scum only wanted the night to discuss strategy and gain town cred with the massclaiming thing, which is honestly something I could see 1337ness doing). TSR also had the easiest time lying as the last player who claimed, and claiming doctor when there's already been speculation about there being a second doctor seems like a smart thing to do for scum. Uhh... all I can do from here is comment on all possible 2-player scum combinations that are still possible:

1337ness and TSR: Wouldn't make sense how nobody died N2, as Manlove only has 1-shot protection. That is unless scum decided to not kill anyone.

1337ness and Melexx: Consistent with TSR's doctor claims in more than one way. (Scum either targetted Manlove twice, or Atlas N1 and Manlove N2)

1337ness and Manlove: Would make sense with how they've been both protecting and seperating/antagonizing each other pretty much from day 1. However again doesn't match up with out kill history unless scum opted to no-kill N2. Additionally, this would mean a setup of Innocent Child, Vanilla Townie, Macho Doctor, Ascetic Voyeur, and Doctor. This seems very coherent as a setup, and therefore makes a lot of sense to me.

Manlove and TSR: Consistent with our night results, as they could have targetted 1337ness twice, thinking he was 1-shot. 1337ness would also make sense as a target, since him dying would immediately put suspicion on me and feed into the "inexperienced scum" narrative perfectly. (Actually, would voyeur get a "no result" from a bulletproof that someone tried to kill? If not we can cross off this possibility.)

Manlove and Melexx: The only thing that speaks against this is that I don't think 3 strong prot roles are very likely. Additionally "Ascetic Voyeur" seems a bit overly specific for a lie.

Melexx and TSR: I could see both 1-shot bulletproof and bulletproof from a balancing perspective tbh. Other than that I have little to comment on this, though again I'm not sure how likely "Ascetic Voyeur" is to be a lie.

Pretty long post, hopefully this will get us somewhere.

Iced_Tea wrote:

Additionally, this would mean a setup of Innocent Child, Vanilla Townie, Macho Doctor, Ascetic Voyeur, and Doctor. This seems very coherent as a setup, and therefore makes a lot of sense to me.

The reason why I think this may be relevant is that Mod decided to give Innocent Child to the newcomer of the group. This implies that his role selections had at least some thought behind them (as opposed to just being picked at random or one-at-a-time in a vacuum). With that in mind, I think a strongly coherent setup makes more sense than something awkward like a Macho Doctor without anyone to target them, or 1-shot Bulletproof + Bulletproof.

Roles are always randomly distributed, or at least claimed to always be randomly distributed, to clamp down on metagaming like "no way he put all the most experienced players as scum".

You're complexifying this way too much. TSR is doc because everyone knew he was town from day one and now he's the only player to claim a role which we already knew to be in the game. He's not confirmed in the same way that you or even Atlas is, but he's confirmed.

Manlove is [ballsy] scum because he CC'd me.
Melexx is scum because if not him then who else.

Vote: Captain Manlove

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:

TSR is doc because everyone knew he was town from day one and now he's the only player to claim a role which we already knew to be in the game. He's not confirmed in the same way that you or even Atlas is, but he's confirmed.

While I wouldn't use such strong language as "confirmed", I agree with this. (Actually now that I re-read my post again I can see why it may seem I don't. I was more saying "He's probably legit, then again it would also be an easy lie." I really need to stop forgetting to post entire sentences.) I strongly disagree that "everyone knew he was town from day one", but I think a second doctor being there makes a lot of sense for the setup. So sure, TSR is probably legit.

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:

Roles are always randomly distributed

That's completely irrelevant to what I've said though. There's a BIG difference between "randomly distributed" and "picked at random". What I mean is that he came up with the configuration of the setup as a whole. E.g. "I'll have 2 Doctors, one of the Macho so the other can't protect him, and an Ascetic Voyeur, etc...." Then he gave me Innocent Child because I'm new and distributed the other roles at random among the rest of the player.

In other words I mean "He didn't choose which roles are in the game at random", as opposed to "He didn't give the roles to the players at random", which seems to be what you understood.

What's CC?

Also, assuming TSR is legit and you are legit, that would only leave Melexx ofc, but we still don't know for sure that you're not scum. But sure, from your perspective Melexx is the only possible choice.