Cracked's Dethy, Too

Orandulum wrote:

It wasn't a filler, it was clearly recommendation that we adjourn to recess and get some rest, that way we can think better.

I mean, I couldn't logically think last night, I need to be on the top of my game if I'm to figure this game out.

Should we all investigate one person... or maybe investigate someone each?

Okay, stop accusing Navarre guys, he's confirmed town. I know he looks really scummy, but it's impossible. Re-read mine and Orandulum's posts, for explanation, if you still don't get it, I'll explain.

Now, assuming Navarre is clear, here is the reason we SHOULD investigate him tonight.

There is a 33% chance that he is paranoid

There is a 66% chance that his result is worth something (either through sanity or insanity).

Time for some maths.

If he is paranoid: there are two useful investigations out there, and both of them had a 1/4 chance to get scum last night. This means there's a 3/4 that they didn't. (3/4)*(3/4) = (9/16) = 7/16 that one of them DID get scum.

If he's sane/insane, then there's a 1/4 that one of them got scum.

All in all, there's a (1/3)*(7/16) + (2/3)*(1/4) = (1/48) + (1/6) = (7/48) = slightly better than 14% chance that a NNP (non-Navarre player) can prove someone scum tomorrow by investigating Navarre -- if they get a different result to what they got last night, then they know they found scum the first night. On top of this, there's also the slight chance that we get a clear, and then there's scumhunting.

This is the bit where it gets better. Scum can't risk a 15% autolose. Well, maybe scum think they can risk the autolose, but I doubt any competent mafioso would risk 15%, it's a moderate gamble. The only way for them to save themself from autolose is to CC and push a mislynch on the other guy. If they do this, we instantly narrow it down to two suspects, and if mafia screw up and try to claim a guily result on someone who's not their CC, then we catch them.

This is one massive minefield for scum, and I plan to make it slightly worse for them -- I want us to make the scummiest person out their results first.

TL;dr: discuss the game, determine an order for players to claim their results in in the hope that scum screw up, no-lnych, all investigate Navarre.

Now, here's the fun part. I lied. Slightly. I want you all to read through the plan and either post 'object' or 'accept' WITHOUT REASONING. I will explain why after all people have voiced approval/disapproval AND NOTHING ELSE. I swear, there is a very good reason for this paragraph, and there is a very good reason for the [usually anti-town] shutting-down of discussion, and I will explain everything.

Object

Object.

Eheh, couldn't help myself.

But seriously I have no actual opinion on which is the correct response.

Meh, no point in continuing now, I was hoping Orandulum would make the mistake of approving.

The flaw is that no-one has investigated Orandulum, and that as scum, he would have nothing to fear from the strategy.

well 1337ness that would be correct if it werent for why orandulum told me why he objected. the sole reason he objected was cause it confused him too much

Navarre wrote:

well 1337ness that would be correct if it werent for why orandulum told me why he objected. the sole reason he objected was cause it confused him too much

Logics gettin' Circular.

Lets all investigate Orandulum then?

Or we could just lynch him.

Orandulum wrote:

well being back in the non-clears feels kind of annoying as with 2 clears we would be able to catch scum a lot easier, of course it is also slightly relieving as I'm no longer in the firing line of the scum, of course this could also be some sort of convoluted Batman Gambit to get me to LyLo and use me against town but that's probably just my paranoia kicking in.

also Navarre, it doesn't matter if you die tonight, if we all investigate you and know that you are innocent, then it will tell everyone a lot about their sanity, confirming it for some. and with confirmed sanities then hunting scum would be so much easier.

This post bugs me. It just does.

But no, the main reason I wanna lynch him is that no-one's investigated him, I don't think it's safe to leave someone alive when we have no results on them.

Vote: Orandulum

Why is it that I always feel the urge to lynch you Orandulum?

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:

Or we could just lynch him.

Orandulum wrote:

well being back in the non-clears feels kind of annoying as with 2 clears we would be able to catch scum a lot easier, of course it is also slightly relieving as I'm no longer in the firing line of the scum, of course this could also be some sort of convoluted Batman Gambit to get me to LyLo and use me against town but that's probably just my paranoia kicking in.

also Navarre, it doesn't matter if you die tonight, if we all investigate you and know that you are innocent, then it will tell everyone a lot about their sanity, confirming it for some. and with confirmed sanities then hunting scum would be so much easier.

This post bugs me. It just does.

But no, the main reason I wanna lynch him is that no-one's investigated him, I don't think it's safe to leave someone alive when we have no results on them.

Vote: Orandulum

Why is it that I always feel the urge to lynch you Orandulum?

Same reason why he constantly gets banned in the chat?

Sure, why the hell not. Lets all ban Lynch Orandulum!

Why can't we all be civilized and talk this through before voting.

Navarre wrote:

Why can't we all be civilized and talk this through before voting.

I actully have agree with Navarre. (I never thought I would say that two times in one day.)
Just because no one has invested Orandulum doesn't necessarily mean he's scum, it doesn't necessarliy mean anyone's scum.
That's why I said we should no-lynch today and come back with better ideas on who's who.

Navarre wrote:

Why can't we all be civilized and talk this through before voting.

1. Orandulum's been friggen scummy all game, I'm not sure if that's just idiocy or just plain scummyness.
2. I've played deathy before and I still can't wrap my head around it, I see the logic to it but I can't apply it.
3. If we get rid of Orandulum we don't have to waste votes on him, giving more chance to find who's scum and who's not.
4. If 1337ness is scum, we're all fucked

I didn't say him not being investigated made him scum. I said it makes him a problem.

With one clear, lynching days one and two yields roughly the same win statistics for town as no-lynching 'till day three. You can take my word for it or you can read the MafiaWiki article on dethy.

I'm glad Beese sees Orandulum as slightly scummy too, for a second, I was worried my gut was wrong.

Finally, of course we should discuss before lynching; that's why we haven't lynched yet.

Also, Navarre asked why I hadn't voted.

The reason being is because I'm stating that I plan to kill him, will probably kill him. And lulz at the results.

So, why shouldn't he be killed?

well...... i say lynching 1337ness will make town safer overall cause if he is scum and i die tonight then town is stuffed.

sorry 1337ness its just that if you live til final LYLO then you will confuse the town more and this will either lead to you dieing as town or you surviving as town.

Most viable lynches today

Orandulum > 1337ness > Mizicho > Beese

Scummy - towny ^^^^

Navarre wrote:

well...... i say lynching 1337ness will make town safer overall cause if he is scum and i die tonight then town is stuffed.

sorry 1337ness its just that if you live til final LYLO then you will confuse the town more and this will either lead to you dieing as town or you surviving as town.

Most viable lynches today

Orandulum > 1337ness > Mizicho > Beese

Scummy - towny ^^^^

Bad logic. Again. If I'm as good as you imply I am (and I personally think my scum-play is about half as good as my town-play), then while I'm a massive danger as scum, I'm also a massive asset as town. It's like saying 'this has a fifty percent chance to go really well so we should do it' when the other fifty percent is of a badness equal to the goodness you're aiming for.

Orandulum, on the other hand, is a total unknown in this game. There is NO investigation on him. Dethy is a game of information and logic; this makes Orandulum a fucking massive threat, even if he is town. We can maximise our information if we kill him instead of wasting investigations on him.

Mizicho is null btw, he shouldn't be on any scum-town lists.

Also, the only players I've confused so far are those who do not like maths.

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:

Navarre wrote:

well...... i say lynching 1337ness will make town safer overall cause if he is scum and i die tonight then town is stuffed.

sorry 1337ness its just that if you live til final LYLO then you will confuse the town more and this will either lead to you dieing as town or you surviving as town.

Most viable lynches today

Orandulum > 1337ness > Mizicho > Beese

Scummy - towny ^^^^

Bad logic. Again. If I'm as good as you imply I am (and I personally think my scum-play is about half as good as my town-play), then while I'm a massive danger as scum, I'm also a massive asset as town. It's like saying 'this has a fifty percent chance to go really well so we should do it' when the other fifty percent is of a badness equal to the goodness you're aiming for.

Orandulum, on the other hand, is a total unknown in this game. There is NO investigation on him. Dethy is a game of information and logic; this makes Orandulum a fucking massive threat, even if he is town. We can maximise our information if we kill him instead of wasting investigations on him.

Mizicho is null btw, he shouldn't be on any scum-town lists.

Also, the only players I've confused so far are those who do not like maths.

So... All of us?
Seems legit.

actually thats all of you! im not included in that. i objected cause i was looking for another way that did not have the outcome of 14%

but theoretically

lynch 1337ness today
im dead tonight

and then we have 3 people who can't confuse each other due to their low intelligence

Navarre, it's a +15% win, not a flat 15%. It's an extra 15% on top of the usual 50ish%.

I've explained why Orandulum is the most logical lynch. You're essentially saying "lynch 1337ness because I don't like people bringing maths into a game most easily solved with maths". Oh, you've also said "1337ness is a threat as scum, so we should lynch him and ignore that fact that he's a threat to scum as town".

How about you either explain why I'm a good policy lynch (USING LOGIC!!!1!), or explain why I'm scum?

1337ness_of_teh_n00b wrote:

Navarre, it's a +15% win, not a flat 15%. It's an extra 15% on top of the usual 50ish%.

I've explained why Orandulum is the most logical lynch. You're essentially saying "lynch 1337ness because I don't like people bringing maths into a game most easily solved with maths". Oh, you've also said "1337ness is a threat as scum, so we should lynch him and ignore that fact that he's a threat to scum as town".

How about you either explain why I'm a good policy lynch (USING LOGIC!!!1!), or explain why I'm scum?

I seriously don't get it, is he's trying to lynch you because you're good at this?

...Navarre, for the first time in a long time, we're actually waiting on you.

I can't speak for him, but that seems to be pretty much what he said.

and here is the post I would have put in this thread if I wasn't a complete Idiot.

Quote :

Sorry for not posting sooner, but Am I a Banana decided that I no longer needed to be notified about this thread. I'm gonna go through the posts and get a up an Anlysis tonight.